Hurricane Milton – One Week Out
Hurricane Milton made landfall near Siesta Key, FL as a Category 3 hurricane a week ago on October 9th, 2024. As carriers receive claims, having an accurate ultimate claims estimate is key for reserve estimates. In addition to using prior experience, using industry data from the Florida Office of Insurance (OIR) can afford carriers with another data point.
Hurricane Ian as a Case Study
The chart below shows the percentage of residential claims reported from Hurricane Ian by week post landfall relative to the final total as reported to the Florida OIR.
44% of claims were reported within the first week after the hurricane.
By the second week, that number reached 63%.
82% of the claims were reported at 10 weeks post-event.
Within residential property, mobile homeowners had a greater percentage of claims reported earlier, while commercial residential had the greatest percentage reported later.
What does this mean for Hurricane Milton and Helene?
As of October 16th, 2024, 141,062 residential claims have been reported for Hurricane Milton.
Assuming 44% of the claims have been reported, this would result in ultimate claims count of around 319K. This would be well below the claim counts for Hurricanes Ian and Irma.
For Hurricane Helene, approximately 69% of Florida residential claims are reported at nearly three weeks since landfall, using the experience from Hurricane Ian. So far, there are 54K claims from Hurricane Helene, resulting in an ultimate claims count estimate of 79K.
Claims handling can have a large impact on ultimate losses. Industry insights can allow carriers to reflect on their performance and plan for future events.
Want to learn more about our approach to catastrophe analytics?
Contact Information
JUNIPER RE PRESS
Adam Miron
Head of Catastrophe Analytics, Juniper Re
763.350.8292
NOTE REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
Insurers are required to submit claims information to the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation (OIR) which are then published on an industry-wide basis by line of business and county on the OIR website. Claims data calls are required frequently shortly after an event and gradually decreased over time. This analysis relies on data as reported to the OIR. It is not audited and is subject to errors.
Hurricane Ian occurred before insurance legislation limiting claim reported time to one year went into effect.
